Wat kunnen we van genomics werkelijk verwachten?

Genomics have been official since January 2009. Back in 2009 when the science was still very new, many of you were hesitant to adopt the technology. However, now that the technology has been around for a few years and results of its use are evident, there's no time like the present to jump on the genetic progress train!

Those of you who did adopt the technology in its infancy are truly reaping the benefits today. If in 2009 you chose to breed to top genomically proven sires for TPI as opposed to the top daughter proven sires for TPI, you would have newly milking daughters of high profile marketing bulls like AltaIOTA, AltaROSS, AltaR2 and AltaRUSH.

On the other hand, most chose to 'wait and see' back in early 2009, and therefore used the top daughter proven bulls available at that time (Table 1). This is a great group of bulls in its own right, and have made happy customers around the globe, but the top Genomic sires at that time (Table 2), are clearly a superior group genetically.

Table 1. Top 10 daughter proven bulls available (based on TPI) in January 2009, with today's TPI values	Table 2. Top 10 genomic proven bulls available (based on TPI) in January 2009, with today's TPI values

Fast-forward from 2009 to today, 2011. Since the inception of genomics, many improvements have been made to the way genomic proofs are estimated, and numerous animals have been added to the reference population – both of these factors contributing to the accuracy of genomic predictions.

The same options exists today as did back in 2009 – use the best daughter-proven sires, or the best G-stars (Table 3 & 4). While AltaIOTA and AltaROSS get a lot of publicity, and have already made some great daughters, the predictions of the genomic group (Table 4) far exceed the daughter-proven group – showing the extreme genetic progress made because of genomics. If you decide to breed to today's top 10 genomic proven sires, in three years, you will already be milking daughters of the highest new daughter proven bulls, and effectively get a 1-generation jump on genetic progress! This group of 10 bulls averages over 300 TPI points (Table 4) higher than today's top 10 daughter proven bulls!

Table 3. Top 10 daughter proven bulls available (based on TPI), August 2011	Table 4. Top 10 genomic proven bulls available (based on TPI), August 2011

But what about the risk of these chart toppers dropping? Be not afraid – 583 (August 2010) genomic bulls received their 1st crop proof in August 2011 and dropped an average of only 20 TPI points (Figure 1). Yes, some dropped more, some less, some stayed the same and some increased. What matters here though is the average of the group, as this is how genomic bulls should be used – in groups.

Figure 1. Proof Stability - Average drop of only 20 TPI points

If you want to maximize the genetic gain of your entire herd and reach your breeding goal at a faster pace, genomic proven sires are certainly the way to achieve your goals. Much like a stock portfolio, you will need to accept a bit of risk to maximize your expected return. Of course risk can be mitigated by in stocks by increasing the number of different companies owned and with genomics, risk can be reduced by increasing the number of different sires used.

So for those of you who wish to maximize your genetic gain and are willing to accept some risk to do so, make sure you set your genetic plan carefully. Then select a group of at least 5-6 sires that will help you maximize your progress towards your genetic plan!

Article by: Nate Zwald, Senior Director Global Strategy & Lynsay Henderson, Marketing Specialist